Name
Firegate: A Computation Wildfire Spread Model with Machine Learning Guided Suppressant Optimization
Date & Time
Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 9:00 AM - 9:15 AM
Kelly Liu Tracy Fanara
Description

As climate change and urbanization increase wildfire risks for around 115 million people, traditional models like Rothermel’s are inadequate for predicting fire propagation. To tackle this, I created a three-dimensional cellular automaton (CA) wildfire model that simulates fire spread using: (1) landscape generation from satellite imagery and elevation data; (2) a CA with a graph neural network for heat transfer and ember transport; and (3) a Bayesian optimization model to locate high-risk zones for fire suppression. Applied to the 2020 Bobcat Fire in Los Angeles, the model replicated mid-stage and final burn areas with 93.2% and 89.9% accuracy, respectively, reducing the burn area by 26.6%. This approach offers a valuable tool for predicting wildfire behavior and optimizing response strategies.

Location Name
Back of Gossip Bar
Sessionboard ID
SESS-562